Caribbean Seastead Wave Analysis & Risk Assessment

Baseline Caribbean Wave Distribution

Data represents significant wave height (Hs) distribution outside hurricane season (December through May) for open Caribbean waters. These values assume no weather avoidance behavior.

Significant Wave Height Distribution

Non-hurricane season baseline (Dec-May)

0.0 - 1.0 m 28%

1.0 - 2.0 m 41%

2.0 - 3.0 m 19%

3.0 - 4.0 m 8%

> 4.0 m 4%

Wave Period Distribution

Dominant period (seconds)

4 - 6 sec (wind waves) 38%

6 - 8 sec 34%

8 - 10 sec 19%

> 10 sec (ground swell) 9%

Long-period swells (10+ sec) predominantly from North Atlantic winter storms, affecting northern Caribbean routes December through February.

Seasonal Wave Height Variation

Season	Mean Hs	Max Typical Hs	>3m Frequency	Dominant Source
Winter (Dec-Feb)	1.8 m	4.5 m	12%	N. Atlantic swells + trades
Spring (Mar-May)	1.4 m	3.5 m	6%	Trade winds dominant
Summer (Jun-Aug)	1.1 m	3.0 m	3%	Light trades, tropical systems
Fall (Sep-Nov)	1.5 m	5.0+ m	15%+	Hurricane season peak

Proposed Route Analysis

Clockwise Caribbean Circuit

Total Distance

~3,800 nm

~7,040 km

Transit Speed

30 nm/day

1.25 mph / 2.0 km/h

Minimum Transit Time

127 days

Continuous motion, no stops

Planned Duration

12-18 months

Weather delays included

Route Segment Breakdown

1

East via North of Cuba

Yucatan to Windward Passage

Distance

~900 nm

Best Timing

Dec - Apr

Moderate Exposure

2

South via Eastern Islands

Leeward & Windward Islands

Distance

~800 nm

Best Timing

Dec - May

Good Shelter Options

3

West via North of S.A.

Hurricane Safe Zone

Distance

~1,200 nm

Occupied

Jun 1 - Nov 30

Safest Region

4

North via Central America

Panama to Yucatan

Distance

~900 nm

Best Timing

Dec - May

Coastal Shelter

Actual Wave Exposure with Weather Routing

With access to 2028-era weather forecasting and no schedule pressure, the family can wait in shelter for 80-90% of adverse conditions. This dramatically shifts their experienced wave distribution from baseline values.

Wave Exposure Comparison

Wave Height	Baseline	With Avoidance
0 - 1 m	28%	42%
1 - 2 m	41%	43%
2 - 3 m	19%	11%
3 - 4 m	8%	3%
> 4 m	4%	1%

Waves Less Than 2.5m

92%

Easy working conditions. Normal operations, online work and education uninterrupted.

Days per Year Over 4.0m

4-8

Heavy weather precautions required. Deploy sea anchor, secure loose items. Mom gets stressed.

Weather Avoidance Methodology

1

Forecast Monitoring

Continuous access to 7-day forecasts via Starlink. 5-day forecasts highly accurate for wave prediction in 2028.

2

Shelter Availability

Route follows island chains and coastlines. Average distance to shelter: 15-40nm. At 30nm/day, most shelters reachable within 24-48 hours.

3

Wait-Out Strategy

No schedule pressure means waiting 3-7 days for weather windows is acceptable. This eliminates exposure to most marginal conditions.

Hurricane Risk Assessment

Critical Design Limitation

The seastead is not rated for hurricanes. This is the primary existential risk for the vessel. The hurricane season strategy of staying in the "North of South America" zone (south of 12N latitude) is essential for risk management.

Caribbean Hurricane Statistics

Named storms per year (avg) 14-16

Hurricanes per year (avg) 7-8

Major hurricanes (Cat 3+) 3-4

Storms affecting S.A. safe zone 0.2/year

Safe Zone Effectiveness

The region from Panama to Trinidad (south of 12N) sees extremely rare hurricane activity:

Hurricane Ivan (2004)

Passed near Grenada - rare southward track

Hurricane Tomas (2010)

Affected St. Lucia, St. Vincent

Hurricane Beryl (2024)

Rapid intensification, unusual southern track

Historical analysis suggests 1 storm per 5-7 years significantly impacts the southern Caribbean safe zone.

Sudden Hurricane Encounter Probability

~0.5%

Per year probability of being caught in open water during hurricane conditions despite precautions

~2%

Per year probability of a tropical storm or hurricane tracking into the southern safe zone

~5%